In light of UN Envoy Staffan de Mistura’s efforts in Geneva this month, I thought now would be an appropriate time to share the results of April’s SCID survey.
Beyond the April results (table below), I thought I would reinforce the severity of the situation as generally understood today:
- 7.6 million people have fled their homes
- 4 million people have fled the country (1.5 million since peace talks commenced in February 2014)
- 220,000 people have been killed since the civil war broke out (VOA News / Middle East as cited in the Embassy of the United State London Weekly Update, 7 May, 2015 http://london.usembassy.gov/midest586.html)
These facts, combined with the future activities associated with the conflict, will most likely translate into even more exceptionally complex and dire conditions for post-conflict peacekeeping than is already the norm. I, for one, would be especially interested in learning just how much forethought, planning, and staging has already been executed for when the conflict finally ceases. If any.
As for the survey results, I have formed the opinion that dinner conversations among the respondents could be especially lively and worthy of ethnographic observation. 🙂
Q1
| Do you believe the momentum of ISIS is derived more from Sunni grievance at the hands of prior Shia control or more from deeply held religious ideology? | ||
| Answer Choices | Responses | |
| More from grievance | 25% | |
| More from deeply held religious ideology | 37.5% | |
| Equal amounts grievance and ideology | 37.5% | |
| Neither are primary drivers (numpty) | 0% | |
Q2
| Do you believe the areas affected by ISIS reveal the disintegration of traditional nation states or the formation of new nation states? | ||
| Answer Choices | Responses | |
| Disintegration of states | 50% | |
| Formation of new nation states | 50% | |
| Do I look like I have a crystal ball? | 0% | |
Q3
| Do you believe weakening ISIS via military intervention will weaken Jihadist movements as a whole or beget their consolidation? | ||
| Answer Choices | Responses | |
| Weaken Jihadist movements as a whole | 50% | |
| Beget their consolidation of Jihadist movements | 50% | |
| Only kittens can melt those cold, hard, hearts | 0% | |
Q4
| Do you believe the more we succeed in hard power tactics the more ISIS will gain in soft power? | |
| Answer Choices | Responses |
| Yes – I believe hard power will strengthen ISIS soft power | 12.5% |
| No – I believe hard power will weaken ISIS’s soft power | 62.5% |
| Depends on external dynamics and whether groups consolidate | 25% |
Security, Conflict and International Development (SCID) 