April Survey Results!

In light of UN Envoy Staffan de Mistura’s efforts in Geneva this month, I thought now would be an appropriate time to share the results of April’s SCID survey.

Beyond the April results (table below), I thought I would reinforce the severity of the situation as generally understood today:

  • 7.6 million people have fled their homes
  • 4 million people have fled the country (1.5 million since peace talks commenced in February 2014)
  • 220,000 people have been killed since the civil war broke out (VOA News / Middle East as cited in the Embassy of the United State London Weekly Update, 7 May, 2015 http://london.usembassy.gov/midest586.html)

These facts, combined with the future activities associated with the conflict, will most likely translate into even more exceptionally complex and dire conditions for post-conflict peacekeeping than is already the norm.  I, for one, would be especially interested in learning just how much forethought, planning, and staging has already been executed for when the conflict finally ceases. If any.

As for the survey results, I have formed the opinion that dinner conversations among the respondents could be especially lively and worthy of ethnographic observation. 🙂

Q1

Do you believe the momentum of ISIS is derived more from Sunni grievance at the hands of prior Shia control or more from deeply held religious ideology?
Answer Choices Responses
More from grievance 25%
More from deeply held religious ideology 37.5%
Equal amounts grievance and ideology 37.5%
Neither are primary drivers (numpty) 0%

Q2

Do you believe the areas affected by ISIS reveal the disintegration of traditional nation states or the formation of new nation states?  
Answer Choices Responses
Disintegration of states 50%
Formation of new nation states 50%
Do I look like I have a crystal ball? 0%

Q3

Do you believe weakening ISIS via military intervention will weaken Jihadist movements as a whole or beget their consolidation?  
Answer Choices Responses
Weaken Jihadist movements as a whole 50%
Beget their consolidation of Jihadist movements 50%
Only kittens can melt those cold, hard, hearts 0%

Q4

Do you believe the more we succeed in hard power tactics the more ISIS will gain in soft power?  
Answer Choices Responses
Yes – I believe hard power will strengthen ISIS soft power 12.5%
No – I believe hard power will weaken ISIS’s soft power 62.5%
Depends on external dynamics and whether groups consolidate 25%

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